Lean Kanban United Kingdom 2014

Clients come to us with an idea for a product and they always ask the questions - how long will it take and how much will it cost us to deliver? 

They need a delivery date and a budget estimate.

This talk is about planning a fixed bid project by applying Monte Carlo simulation using collected historical data about lead time per story. 
The method presented can be used by any team that uses user stories for planning and tracking project execution no matter the development process used (Scrum, XP, kanban systems). 

Here is the webinar on the topic http://www.swiftkanban.com/news-and-events/197-probabilistic-project-planning-with-dimitar-bakardzhiev-webinar-recording-and-slides.html

And here are slides and video on the mechanics of Monte Carlo: http://www.slideshare.net/dimiterbak/noestimates-project-planning-using-monte-carlo-simulation